Incertidumbre macroeconómica e inversión privada en Ecuador, periodo 2000-2020

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The objective of this research is to analyze the effect that macroeconomic uncertainty has on private investment in Ecuador during the period 2000–2020. Chapter I contains an introductory part about the study variables. Chapter II describes the different theories and empirical studies that relate macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment, where it is established, that macroeconomic uncertainty represents those uncertain events in the future to which economic agents are subject when investing, for example. Private investment, on the other hand, consists of the application of financial resources to improve or increase the capital stock. Chapter III describes the methodological part, method, type of research, and model to estimate the relationship between the variables. Chapter IV includes analysis and interpretation of results. In the first instance, a GARCH model is applied to the consumer price index and terms of trade index, after which the macroeconomic uncertainty index is constructed. They estimate a cointegration vector model through the fully least squares completely modified (FMOLS). Chapter V establishes the respective conclusions and recommendations.